Pre-match trading or 'scalping' is a technique which locks in profit before football matches have even kicked off!
It can be tricky to make consistent profits in this way, so we decided to trial a scalping tool called 'Pre-Match Trading'.
Also known as 'PMT' or 'Shirley', Pre-Match Trading is a football markets model based on probability theory and statistics.
The software uses prices in liquid markets and calculates relevant prices in secondary markets, thus allowing users to spot mispriced events and profit from trading them before the match kicks off.
We asked Dave to give the software a trial run and report back with his results.
The software identifies out of line odds in the following markets:
- Over/Under Goals – from 1.5 to 4.5
- Correct Score
- Next Goal
- Half Time Match Odds
- Half Time Correct Score
Here, you can see an example of the software at work with the Newcastle v Man City game.
On the left is the current Betfair odds, followed by the odds calculated by PMT. It also has prices from Pinnacle, SBO and spread firms, which can offer some insight to which way the market is going to go.
One of the more recent upgrades to the software is the Draw Inflation tool, which spots games where the draw has been calculated too high or low.
There are a number of strategies available in the help section, which explain the recommended action in various scenarios, such as trading matches with a short priced favourite or what to do with a high or low draw inflation.
The software may look a bit complicated at first; especially if this is the first time you are dipping into football trading.
However, there is plenty of support available starting with the tutorial videos and examples of the software at work with previous successful trades. There is also a chat room with some experienced traders who can offer advice, as well as email support for any other issues.
The software is browser-based, so works on Windows, Mac & Linux.
It's Dave here with my first update.
I have been using the software for a month now and it has given me a profit of £60.34 using £20 stakes. My best day saw a profit of £17.73.
I have found that the amount of information given on the website is, to say the least, a little overwhelming and it is difficult to know where to start.
The authors have used a very simple colour coding method to try and simplify things, but as prices move very quickly in some markets these are constantly changing. Sometimes the bet that you were going to make is moments later no longer a qualifier.
I attempted some trades using Bet Angel in reverse mode, but initially I had great difficulty in getting my bets matched even though liquidity in the markets that I chose was very good.
I have now tried to concentrate on markets where I might spot a gap between the back and the lay price in the hope that I can take advantage of this to get my bets matched. This has perhaps led me to use it less than I perhaps would otherwise have done.
There are a multitude of videos on the site to assist with using PMT but I found that most of them assumed a level of familiarity with the tool that most will not possess, especially when starting out. They can appear somewhat bewildering to a new user.
This is yet another piece of software that would greatly benefit from a good simplistic written manual.
The authors also send out periodic e-mails with predicted price movements but I found that these were quite difficult to get matched as obviously, everybody was trying to do the same.
I will be taking a break from using the tool until the Euro's start and hope as I get more used to it that I can increase the profit.
Dave here again, reporting back with my final update to the Pre-Match Trading review.
In my first month, I made a profit of £60.34 using £20 stakes then took a short break while waiting for the Euros to get started.
During Euro 2016, I managed to make a small profit of £16.38, again using £20 stakes, so that gives me a total profit of £76.72. This is not spectacular but nonetheless, it is a profit.
It is up to the individual to determine the size of bets that they wish to make but obviously, my results can be extrapolated to any bet size.
I opted to use small stakes during the trial to try and get to grips with it, but many people experienced in scalping may use stakes ranging from £100 - £1000.
In reality, the full stake is never at risk as the idea is to trade out with a small loss if the odds do not move in the right direction.
To give an example of what could be achieved, using £100 stakes during the review would have resulted in a profit of £383.60, £500 stakes would have made a profit of £1918 and £1000 stakes would have given a profit of £3836.
Euro 2016 Results
|Date||Match||Bet||Back Price||Lay Price||Profit/Loss||Running Total|
|14/06/2016||Austria v Hungary||0-0||8.80||8.6||£0.47||£2,000.47|
|Portugal v Iceland||1-0||6.00||5.90||£0.34||£2,001.49|
|15/06/2016||Russia v Slovakia||0-0||8.60||8.40||£0.49||£2,002.58|
|Romania v Switzerland||0-0||8.60||8.40||£0.49||£2,003.90|
|16/06/2016||England v Wales||0-1||16.00||17.50||-£1.71||£2,003.98|
|Ukraine v N Ireland||0-0||7.80||8.00||-£0.50||£2,003.71|
|17/06/2016||Czech Rep v Croatia||0-0||7.20||7.60||-£1.05||£2,003.08|
|18/06/2016||Belgium v Rep Of Ireland||0-0||8.60||8.40||£0.48||£2,002.09|
|19/06/2016||Romania v Albania||0-0||9.40||9.20||£0.43||£2,002.39|
|France v Switzerland||0-0||7.40||7.20||£0.56||£2,003.32|
|20/06/2016||Slovakia v England||0-0||8.20||8.00||£0.50||£2,004.85|
|Russia v Wales||0-0||7.80||7.60||£0.53||£2,005.15|
|21/06/2016||Croatia v Spain||0-0||7.00||6.80||£0.59||£2,006.79|
|Czech Rep v Turkey||0-0||10.50||11.00||-£0.91||£2,005.21|
|22/06/2016||Italy v Ireland||0-1||8.40||8.20||£0.49||£2,004.12|
|Sweden v Belgium||0-0||9.40||9.20||£0.43||£2,004.52|
|26/06/2016||Ireland v France||0-0||7.80||8.00||-£0.50||£2,006.25|
|26/06/2016||Germany v Slovakia||2-0||6.00||5.90||£0.34||£2,005.99|
|Hungary v Belgium||0-0||8.80||8.60||£0.47||£2,005.26|
|27/06/2016||Italy v Spain||0-2||10.00||9.80||£0.41||£2,004.96|
|27/06/2016||England v Iceland||2-0||6.80||6.60||£0.61||£2,003.68|
|30/06/2016||Poland v Portugal||0-0||6.40||6.20||£0.65||£2,004.03|
|01/07/2016||Wales v Belgium||0-1||6.80||6.60||£0.61||£2,006.04|
|03/07/2016||France v Iceland||2-1||9.20||9.40||-£0.43||£2,007.60|
|06/07/2016||Portugal v Wales||0-1||10.50||10.00||£1.00||£2,011.98|
|07/07/2016||Germany v France||0-1||8.60||8.40||£0.48||£2,012.12|
|10/07/2016||Portugal v France||0-1||6.60||6.40||£0.63||£2,014.84|
Scalping is a typical Marmite thing... you either love it or you hate it.
Many people cannot seem to get to grips with scalping or are not comfortable enough to make bets large enough to make a tick here or there worthwhile.
As for the PMT software itself, Dave said that he sometimes felt a little overwhelmed at the sheer amount of information that was available. He also found it confusing when a bet was indicated and then a few minutes later this was no longer the case.
In addition, Dave suggested that Pre-Match Trading could do with a simplified manual for beginners to help them get started.
In conclusion, we have placed PMT in the 'Pass' category as it does perform as expected and returned a profit for Dave.
|Review Stats||£76.72 profit to £20 stakes|
|Stakes||User’s choice, but small stakes (<£50) are unlikely to generate enough profit to cover membership fees|
|Starting bank||User’s choice|
|Average no. bets||Varies – we had approx. 4-6 per day|
|Price||£20 for two weeks, £39 for one month, £106 for three months or £191 for six months|
Other Systems and Services which Passed
- Chat room available to discuss trades
- Video examples of the software in operation
- Good customer support
- User manual/instructions could be improved
- Advice emails difficult to take advantage of due to competition with other traders