Welcome to our Value Backing review, a horse racing tipping service from Carl Nicholson that provides selective value bets for the week's main race meetings.
We have been trialing the horse racing betting service, Value Backing, over the last four months and have now reached the end of our review. The service is split into two parts – the main Value Backing tips and Value Backing Extra.
The main VB tips have produced a total profit of 8.00pts with a return on investment of 20.5%. On the other hand the VB Extra tips made a loss of 6.90pts, so the two combined finished the trial with an overall profit of 1.10pts.
The service is run by Carl Nicholson, who graduated from Harvard with a degree in Mathematics and Computer Science. He has been involved in the horse racing industry for many years and launched Value Backing after topping the proofing tables at Race Advisor and The Betting School Insider’s Club. The service has been very professional throughout the review, with bets arriving in plenty of time before the races. Each selection comes with reasoning behind the bet and advised stakes and odds. We found that we were able to get the required odds the majority of the time, if not better.
Cheltenham 1.05 The Clock Leary 1pt win @ 12’1 Bet365 – looked very useful when making chasing debut at Ascot last November, but then had a set back at Newbury. Worth forgiving that and hopefully is back to form today off a decent low weight – Example of analysis received with tips
The main Value Backing tips are very selective and we received just 39 throughout the four months, an average of 9-10 per month. These are focused on value bets for the main races of the week. They are mostly Win Only with the occasional Each Way bet. Our average odds during the review ranged from 5.00 to 29.00, averaging at 11.65.
The Value Backing Extra tips were introduced because some people preferred to receive tips more often. These include tips for some of the smaller meetings of the week. From our trial it seems that being more selective is the way to go with this service, as the VB Extra tips didn’t perform very well with just 1 out of 4 winning months.
Unusually we did manage to make a small profit of 2.06pts at Betfair SP from the VB Extra bets and there were quite a few occasions where the odds drifted out substantially before the start of the race. As well as these two parts to the service, we have also received a number of ante-post selections for Cheltenham.
Key Stats:
| VB Main | VB Extra | Overall | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Bets | 39 | 37 | 76 |
| Profit/Loss (pts) | +8.00 | -6.90 | +1.10 |
| Average Odds | 11.65 | 12.85 | 12.24 |
| Strike Rate | 12.8% | 13.5% | 13.2% |
| ROI | 20.5% | -19.2% | 1.47% |
| Bank | 101.10 |
Month #4 Results (followed by VB Extra results):
| Date | Course | Time | Selection | Stake | Odds | P/L | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/16 | Sandown | 15:00 | Sadlers Encore | 1.00 | 7.50 | 6.50 | 4.00 |
| 06/02/16 | Sandown | 15:30 | Unioniste | 1.00 | 8.00 | -1.00 | 3.00 |
| 13/02/16 | Newbury | 13:50 | Sykes | 1.00 | 5.00 | -1.00 | 2.00 |
| 20/02/16 | Haydock | 14:40 | Bishops Road | 1.00 | 9.00 | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| 27/02/16 | Kempton | 15:35 | Roc D Aapsis | 1.00 | 21.00 | -1.00 | 9.00 |
| 05/03/16 | Doncaster | 15:45 | Drop Out Joe | 1.00 | 5.00 | -1.00 | 8.00 |
| 08/02/16 | Musselburgh | 15:30 | Claude Carter | 1.00 | 13.00 | -1.00 | -12.90 |
| 09/02/16 | Sedgefield | 15:25 | Heart O Annandale | 1.00 | 7.00 | -1.00 | -13.90 |
| 14/02/16 | Southwell | 15:20 | Jaarih | 1.00 | 10.00 | -1.00 | -14.90 |
| 15/02/16 | Catterick | 15:40 | Its A Mans World | 1.00 | 11.00 | -1.00 | -15.90 |
| 15/02/16 | Wolverhampton | 16:20 | Whispering Warrior | 1.00 | 10.00 | -1.00 | -16.90 |
| 16/02/16 | Southwell | 15:05 | Llewellyn | 1.00 | 12.00 | -1.00 | -17.90 |
| 16/02/16 | Ayr | 16:05 | Willie Hall | 1.00 | 13.00 | -1.00 | -18.90 |
| 17/02/16 | Musselburgh | 15:25 | Danceintothelight | 1.00 | 15.00 | 14.00 | -4.90 |
| 19/02/16 | Lingfield | 14:20 | Malaysian Boleh | 1.00 | 13.00 | -1.00 | -5.90 |
| 03/03/16 | Southwell | 13:45 | Feelin Dicky e/w | 1.00 | 17.00 | -1.00 | -6.90 |
Value Backing has two pricing options:
- Monthly at £34.99
- Annually at £199.99
Despite finishing our review with a profit for the main VB tips, +8.00pts over four months is not something that we are wowed by. The VB Extra tips wiped out most of this profit so we finish the review almost back where we started. Betting at long odds requires a lot of patience and with the low amount of bets, you really need to take a long-term approach with this service.
We think that Value Backing deserves a Neutral rating as the main service has shown good promise to bring in a profit over the long term and had a fantastic ROI during our review. We would be more wary of the Extra bets as these didn’t hit the mark, however one or two wins at long odds could completely turn it around.
Update on antepost bets: We were hoping to update the review with a boost to our profit from the Cheltenham ante-post bets, but unfortunately these gave us a loss of 0.62pts, so overall there is no change with regards to our final rating.
Value Backing Review: Update Three
6th February 2016
The third month in our review of Value Backing has been pretty frustrating, with just 9 bets for the main service and 9 losses, bringing us down to a total loss of -2.5pts for the trial so far. The VB Extra tips finished the month with a loss of -5pts, and are now at a loss of -11.9pts overall. The two combined have now made a loss of -14.4pts altogether.
It’s a shame as we thought that the tipster being so selective would pay off, but that has not been the case so far.
With the average odds between 11.00-13.00, things could turn around very quickly if the service can get a couple of wins under their belt.
Key Stats:
| VB Main | VB Extra | Overall | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Bets | 9 | 15 | 24 |
| Profit/Loss (pts) | -9.00 | -5.00 | -14.00 |
| Average Odds | 13.39 | 10.83 | 11.81 |
| Strike Rate | 0.00% | 13.3% | 8.33% |
| ROI | -100% | -35.7% | -60.9% |
| Bank | 85.6 |
Month #3 Results (followed by VB Extra results):
| Date | Course | Time | Selection | Stake | Odds | P/L | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/01/16 | Lingfield | 13:35 | First Summer | 1.00 | 13.00 | -1.00 | 5.50 |
| 09/01/16 | Chepstow | 13:45 | Portrait King e/w | 1.00 | 29.00 | -1.00 | 4.50 |
| 09/01/16 | Chepstow | 14:55 | Wizards Bridge | 1.00 | 5.00 | -1.00 | 3.50 |
| 16/01/16 | Wetherby | 14:05 | Mwaleshi | 1.00 | 7.50 | -1.00 | 2.50 |
| 16/01/16 | Warwick | 15:35 | Houblan Des Obeaux | 1.00 | 10.00 | -1.00 | 1.50 |
| 21/01/16 | Wincanton | 14:45 | Leo Luna | 1.00 | 11.00 | -1.00 | 0.50 |
| 23/01/16 | Ascot | 14:25 | Lil Rockerfeller | 1.00 | 13.00 | -1.00 | -0.50 |
| 23/01/16 | Ascot | 15:35 | Bennys Mist | 1.00 | 15.00 | -1.00 | -1.50 |
| 30/01/16 | Doncaster | 15:15 | Double Ross | 1.00 | 17.00 | -1.00 | -2.50 |
| Date | Course | Time | Selection | Stake | Odds | P/L | Bank |
| 07/01/16 | Lingfield | 15:20 | Comadoir | 1.00 | 9.00 | -1.00 | -7.90 |
| 13/01/16 | Taunton | 15:10 | The Brock Again | 1.00 | 5.50 | -1.00 | -8.90 |
| 14/01/16 | Chelmsford | 19:40 | Black Vale e/w | 1.00 | 15.00 | -1.00 | -9.90 |
| 15/01/16 | Wolverhampton | 16:45 | Oriental Realtion e/w | 1.00 | 17.00 | 1.50 | -8.40 |
| 20/01/16 | Kempton | 19:10 | Clement | 1.00 | 9.00 | -1.00 | -9.40 |
| 25/01/16 | Kempton | 15:45 | Barrakilla | 1.00 | 5.00 | -1.00 | -10.40 |
| 26/01/16 | Southwell | 14:05 | Roger Thorpe | 0.50 | 7.00 | -0.50 | -10.90 |
| 26/01/16 | Southwell | 14:05 | Excelling Oscar | 0.50 | 12.00 | -0.50 | -11.40 |
| 27/01/16 | Catterick | 16:05 | Deny | 1.00 | 10.00 | -1.00 | -12.40 |
| 28/01/16 | Warwick | 14:55 | The Boss's Dream | 1.00 | 6.50 | 5.50 | -6.90 |
| 29/01/16 | Huntingdon | 14:10 | Sonofagun | 1.00 | 7.00 | -1.00 | -7.90 |
| 02/02/16 | Southwell | 16:30 | Princess Peaches | 1.00 | 15.00 | -1.00 | -8.90 |
| 03/02/16 | Newcastle | 14:00 | Frank The Slink | 1.00 | 26.00 | -1.00 | -9.90 |
| 03/02/16 | Ludlow | 16:30 | Hill Fort | 1.00 | 11.00 | -1.00 | -10.90 |
| 05/02/16 | Catterick | 13:50 | Bennylicious | 1.00 | 8.00 | -1.00 | -11.90 |
We will give Value Backing the benefit of the doubt for the time being, as you sometimes need to take a long-term view with these types of services. Although from what we have seen so far, we can’t imagine many people would be interested in a service with so few bets, or have the patience to wait months at a time for things to turn around. We will continue to trial the service and make a decision within the next couple of months.
Value Backing Review: Update Two
9th January 2016
We’ve completed the 2nd month of our trial of Value Backing and banked a small profit of 5.5pts for the main tips, with a massive ROI of 55%. The VB Extra tips made a loss of -2.9pts, which gives us an overall profit of 2.6pts for the month and an ROI of 14.4%. At Betfair SP the main service made a profit of 5.41pts and a loss of -1.04pts for the VB extra tips, giving an overall profit of 4.37pts.
We received 10 tips for the main service and 8 for VB Extra, so the same amount as last month overall. We also received 3 ante-post tips for Cheltenham, obviously this is some time away yet, but by getting in early there is a good opportunity for getting better odds. Since the beginning of the review, the main tips have made a profit of 6.5pts and VB Extra has made a loss of -6.9pts, so we are pretty much back where we started. Taking into account the subscription costs, we are losing money as it stands.
Key Stats:
| VB Main | VB Extra | Overall | |
| Number of Bets | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| Profit/Loss (pts) | 5.50 | -2.90 | 2.6 |
| Average Odds | 11.20 | 13.0 | 12.0 |
| Strike Rate | 20% | 25% | 22.2% |
| ROI | 55% | -36.3% | 14.4% |
| Bank | 99.6 |
Month #2 Results (followed by VB Extra results):
| Date | Course | Time | Selection | Stake | Odds | P/L | Running Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/15 | Cheltenham | 15:35 | Blue Buttons | 1.00 | 7.00 | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| 19/12/15 | Ascot | 15:00 | Gullinbursti | 1.00 | 17.00 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| 19/12/15 | Ascot | 15:35 | Jollys Cracked It | 1.00 | 8.00 | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| 26/12/15 | Kempton | 13:25 | Sirabad | 1.00 | 6.00 | -1.00 | 5.00 |
| 27/12/15 | Kempton | 14:35 | The Last Samuri | 1.00 | 7.50 | 6.50 | 11.50 |
| 01/01/16 | Cheltenham | 13:55 | Tenor Nivernais | 1.00 | 7.50 | -1.00 | 10.50 |
| 01/01/16 | Cheltenham | 14:30 | Sybarite | 1.00 | 29.00 | -1.00 | 9.50 |
| 01/01/16 | Musselburgh | 13:35 | Quito Du Tresor | 1.00 | 13.00 | -1.00 | 8.50 |
| 01/01/16 | Musselburgh | 14:10 | Strongpoint | 1.00 | 9.00 | -1.00 | 7.50 |
| 02/01/16 | Sandown | 13:50 | Just Cameron | 1.00 | 8.00 | -1.00 | 6.50 |
| Date | Course | Time | Selection | Stake | Odds | P/L | Running Total |
| 11/12/15 | Doncaster | 12:45 | Park Place | 1.00 | 9.00 | -1.00 | -5.00 |
| 11/12/15 | Doncaster | 15:30 | Hidden Justice | 1.00 | 13.00 | -1.00 | -6.00 |
| 16/12/15 | Newbury | 12:40 | Minella On Line | 1.00 | 12.00 | -1.00 | -7.00 |
| 16/12/15 | Ludlow | 14:40 | Red Devil Lads | 1.00 | 9.00 | -1.00 | -8.00 |
| 17/12/15 | Towcester | 15:40 | Sweetlittlekitty | 1.00 | 8.00 | -1.00 | -9.00 |
| 26/12/15 | Fontwell | 14:05 | Highsalvia Cosmos e/w | 1.00 | 17.00 | 1.10 | -7.90 |
| 05/01/16 | Southwell | 15:40 | Ciaras Cookie | 1.00 | 15.00 | -1.00 | -8.90 |
| 06/01/16 | Huntingdon | 14:40 | King Muro e/w | 1.00 | 21.00 | 2.00 | -6.90 |
In summary, the VB Main tips have been ticking over nicely, giving us a small profit in both months so far, but VB Extra has been a let down. VB Extra was designed for people who like to have a bet more often, but it looks as though being selective and sticking with the main service is the way to go. There haven’t been enough bets to make a fair judgment on this at the moment. We’ll be back next month with another update.
Value Backing Review: Update One
8th December 2015
It’s time for our first update to Value Backing, the horse racing tipster service from Carl Nicholson. The month started off well with the first bet winning at 14/1, but unfortunately we did not see another winner after that. The VB Main tips finished the month in profit by 1pt, and the VB Extra tips lost us 4pts, giving an overall loss of 3pts. We also recorded the results at Betfair SP, which showed a loss of -7.85pts.
We received 14 tips from the main service and 4 from VB Extra, so a total of 18 altogether. The selections have been sent out with plenty of time to get the bets on and we’ve had no trouble at all getting the required odds. Each tip has come with a short analysis and reason behind the bet – example below.
“Aintree 1.40 Soll 1pt win @ 11’1 Bet365 – has twice run well enough in the Grand National without suggesting he stays that marathon trip. This trip looks ideal and usually races prominently and jumps these type fences well enough, which is a big advantage over this course. Was held up and never sighted on reappearance at Cheltenham, but that just looked a prep for this first time up after his National exploits and soft ground will be no problem at all.”
Key Stats:
| VB Main | VB Extra | Overall | |
| Number of Bets | 14 | 4 | 18 |
| Profit/Loss (pts) | +1.00 | -4.00 | -3.00 |
| Average Odds | 12.11 | 21.75 | 14.25 |
| Strike Rate | 7.1% | 0.0% | 5.56% |
| ROI | 7.1% | -100% | -16.7% |
| Bank | 97.0 |
Month One Results: (VB Main tips followed by VB Extra)
| Date | Course | Time | Selection | Stake | Odds | P/L | Running Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/15 | Doncaster | 13:50 | Withernsea | 1.00 | 15.00 | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| 07/11/15 | Wincanton | 15:15 | Francis Of Assisi | 1.00 | 7.50 | -1.00 | 13.00 |
| 13/11/15 | Cheltenham | 13:05 | The Clock Leary | 1.00 | 13.00 | -1.00 | 12.00 |
| 13/11/15 | Cheltenham | 14:50 | Any Currency | 1.00 | 9.00 | -1.00 | 11.00 |
| 14/11/15 | Cheltenham | 13:50 | Spring Heeled | 1.00 | 15.00 | -1.00 | 10.00 |
| 14/11/15 | Cheltenham | 15:00 | Morito Du Berlais | 1.00 | 17.00 | -1.00 | 9.00 |
| 21/11/15 | Haydock | 14:25 | Shantou Bob | 1.00 | 7.00 | -1.00 | 8.00 |
| 21/11/15 | Haydock | 14:25 | Low Key e/w | 1.00 | 26.00 | -1.00 | 7.00 |
| 28/11/15 | Newcastle | 14:05 | Beltor | 1.00 | 10.00 | -1.00 | 6.00 |
| 28/11/15 | Newcastle | 14:40 | Virak | 1.00 | 8.00 | -1.00 | 5.00 |
| 05/12/15 | Aintree | 13:40 | Soll | 1.00 | 12.00 | -1.00 | 4.00 |
| 05/12/15 | Aintree | 13:40 | Thunder and Roses | 1.00 | 10.00 | -1.00 | 3.00 |
| 05/12/15 | Sandown | 14:25 | Vicenzo Mio | 1.00 | 7.00 | -1.00 | 2.00 |
| 05/12/15 | Sandown | 15:35 | Just A Par | 1.00 | 13.00 | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| VB Extra Results | |||||||
| Date | Course | Time | Selection | Stake | Odds | P/L | Running Total |
| 15/11/15 | Cheltenham | 15:15 | Jansboy e/w | 1.00 | 34.00 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| 22/11/15 | Uttoxeter | 14:50 | Ravens Brook | 1.00 | 11.00 | -1.00 | -2.00 |
| 26/11/15 | Taunton | 16:00 | Double Accord | 1.00 | 8.00 | -1.00 | -3.00 |
| 27/11/15 | Newbury | 13:30 | Gevrey Chambertin e/w | 1.00 | 34.00 | -1.00 | -4.00 |
It hasn’t been a great start to the review in all fairness, but there’s still plenty of chance to get back on track. Hopefully the service can turn things around next month and bring us some profit.
Value Backing Review: Introduction
6th November 2015
Today we are starting a review of horseracing tipster Carl Nicholson’s betting service – Value Backing. Carl Nicholson is a Harvard University graduate with a degree in Mathematics and Computer Science.
He started out in the horseracing industry working for the Daily Racing Form in the USA, as an understudy to a professional race reader. More recently, The Betting School Insider’s Club and Race Advisor proofed all of his selections, and after topping the proofing tables, Value Backing was launched.
There are two parts to the Value Backing service – the standard VB tips which focuses on value tips for big races, usually at the weekend. Then there is VB extra, which offers selections for the smaller meetings. There is a complete history of results available to download on the website, which is updated weekly.
The standard VB selections achieved some impressive profits during 2012-2014. From 345 selections they generated a profit of 148.22pts with a huge ROI of 42.17%.
So far in 2015 the VB tips have made a profit of 19.93pts. From 114 bets, there has been a return on investment of 16.1%. The VB extra selections have added an extra 42.7pts profit, which adds up to over 60pts profit so far this year.
The selections are emailed out in the morning along with the advised odds. On average there is only of 8-10 bets per month and they are generally priced at long odds. They are a mixture of win and sometimes each-way bets for the bigger priced ones. We would expect to see some long losing streaks, but they would only need a low strike rate to be able to make a profit in the long-term.
There is no information about what bank sizing on the website, so we will go with the standard 100pt bank with 1% stake per bet. We will be recording the results using the advised odds, the odds we were able to obtain and also the Betfair SP results.
The cost of the service is quite pricy at £34.99 per month but the annual option of £199 would bring it down to £16.58 per month, a saving of over 50%.
We will be back in a month’s time with the first set of results.