Welcome to our Soccer Tip review - A value football betting service run by Maths Graduate Louise who discovered a discrepancy in bookies Over 2.5 Goals odds.
We have come to the end of our review of Soccer Tip after following tips over the last four months. The review did not start well with the first two months both finishing with a loss, but we're pleased to see that the service is now getting back on track with a profit in both of the final two months.
Unfortunately, we weren't able to make a full recovery and finished the review with a total loss of 8.04 points.
There's a detailed set of historical results available to download from the website and these show that the service has an overall strike rate of 59.6%. During our review there was a strike rate of 51% so we were quite a bit under and weren't seeing enough winning bets to make a profit at the average obtained odds of 1.87.
The service is run by Louise who is a Maths graduate and is a value based system focusing on Over/Under Goals. In the past the service included Under 2.5 Goals selections, but now focuses wholly on Over 2.5 Goals.
|Review Stats||-8.04pts loss, -5.5% ROI, 51% SR|
|Stakes||Advised 1.0-1.5 point stakes|
|Starting bank||Advice given based on drawdown – we used 50 points|
|Average no. bets||Approx. 25 per month|
|Time of emails||Evenings several times per week|
|Price||£1 for 14 days then £35 per month|
Key Stats - Overall
|Advised Odds||Available Odds|
|Number of Bets||98||98|
|Total Stakes (pts)||146.00||146.00|
|Profit/Loss (£10 stakes)||-£57.20||-£80.40|
|Total Bank Growth||-11.4%||-16.1%|
|Bank (50pt starting)||44.28||41.96|
Longest Winning Sequence: 7
Longest Losing Sequence: 6
Max Drawdown: 16.85pts
Results - Update Four
|12/05/2017||Aberdeen v Celtic||1.50||1.75||1.13||39.47|
|13/05/2017||Houston Dynamo v Vancouver Whitecaps||1.50||1.86||1.29||40.76|
|13/05/2017||Toronto FC v Minnesota & Portland Timbers v Atlanta United||1.00||2.20||-1.00||39.76|
|14/05/2017||Chicago Fire v Seattle Sounders||1.50||1.75||1.13||40.89|
|17/05/2017||Rangers v Aberdeen||1.50||1.90||1.35||42.24|
|18/05/2017||Philadelphia Union v Houston Dynamo||1.50||1.69||-1.50||40.74|
|18/05/2017||Sporting Kansas City v Seattle Sounders||1.50||2.00||1.50||42.24|
|18/05/2017||Partick v Celtic||1.50||1.70||1.05||43.29|
|19/05/2017||Montreal Impact v Portland Timbers & Minnesota v LA Galaxy||1.00||2.33||1.33||44.62|
|19/05/2017||DC United v Chicago Fire||1.50||1.67||-1.50||43.12|
|19/05/2017||Partick v Aberdeen||1.50||1.98||1.47||44.59|
|25/05/2017||Jaro v Honka||1.50||2.12||-1.50||43.09|
|27/05/2017||Toronto FC v Columbus Crew||1.50||1.70||1.05||44.14|
|27/05/2017||Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers||1.50||1.71||-1.50||42.64|
|28/05/2017||Vancouver Whitecaps v DC United||1.50||1.80||-1.50||41.14|
|28/05/2017||San Jose Earthquakes v Los Angeles Galaxy||1.50||2.10||1.65||42.79|
|01/06/2017||Columbus Crew v Seattle Sounders||1.50||1.71||1.07||43.85|
|01/06/2017||Houston Dynamo v Real Salt Lake||1.50||1.65||0.98||44.83|
|02/06/2017||Honka v AC Oulu||1.50||1.76||1.14||45.97|
|02/06/2017||Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota||1.50||1.65||0.98||46.94|
|02/06/2017||Vancouver Whitecaps v Atlanta United||1.50||1.68||1.02||47.96|
|02/06/2017||DC United v Los Angeles Galaxy O||1.50||1.83||-1.50||46.46|
|02/06/2017||Orlando City v Chicago Fire||1.50||1.65||-1.50||44.96|
|10/06/2017||Haka v KPV Kokkola||1.50||1.70||-1.50||43.46|
|10/06/2017||Chicago Fire v Atlanta United||1.50||1.65||-1.50||41.96|
The selections are sent out via email throughout the week, usually in the evening, but they can also be viewed by logging into a member's area as an emergency back up.
The service covers England League One, Scotland Premier League, America MLS and Finland Ykkonen, which means it runs all year round.
We found that the odds often shortened quickly after receiving the emails and this had an impact on our results, with an overall difference of 2.32 points in comparison to the advised odds results.
Each selection also has the "true odds" calculation from Louise. On a few occasions we found that the advised odds were very close to the true odds, meaning the value was slim.
For example, on the 27th May Toronto FC v Columbus Crew the true odds had been calculated at 1.66 and the advised odds were 1.68. There were odds quoted from Pinnacle at 1.74, but unfortunately those of us in the UK can't bet via that site without a broker.
Cost of Membership
Membership costs £1 for the first two weeks and then £35 per month. There is a no quibble refund guarantee available for the first 10 days of the first or subsequent subscription.
Unfortunately, there aren't any discounted membership options for long-term subscribers.
Soccer Tip aims to make consistent, steady profits over the long-term, which is generally what we want from any betting service, however there really wasn't much to excite us here.
The sales page does state that it is mostly suitable for people that are new to betting and whilst it has been an easy service to follow, we were disappointed not to have made a profit over a four month period. We would imagine that most people that are new to betting would have given up and moved on to something else by now.
The service did begin to make a recovery in the third month of our trial and has reported a steady profits since 2011. We were happy to see detailed results available to download.
We cannot judge a service purely on their past results of course, so we have to make a decision based on what we experienced during the review.
After weighing everything up, we think that a neutral rating is fair and we will be awarding a "middle of the road" 2.5 out of 5 stars.
Soccer Tip Review: Update Three
16th May 2017
It's been a positive month for Soccer Tip with a sharp increase in the strike rate, which finally gives us a profitable month for the first time in our review. From 21 selections we made a profit of 4.14 points at an ROI of 13.1%.
Overall we have made a loss of 11.65 points at the available odds from the 73 selections that we have received so far.
Key Stats - Update Three
|Advised Odds||Available Odds|
|Number of Bets||21||21|
|Total Stakes (pts)||31.50||31.50|
|Profit/Loss (£10 stakes)||£46.70||£41.40|
|Total Bank Growth||-19.9%||-23.3%|
|Bank (50pt starting)||40.04||38.35|
Results - Update Three
|13/04/2017||Bury v Rochdale||1.50||1.74||-1.50||32.71|
|14/04/2017||Port Vale v Sheffield Utd||1.50||1.86||1.29||34.00|
|15/04/2017||Montreal Impact v Atlanta||1.50||1.70||1.05||35.05|
|16/04/2017||New York Red Bulls v DC United||1.50||1.68||-1.50||33.55|
|20/04/2017||New England Revolution v San Jose Earthquakes||1.50||1.95||-1.50||32.05|
|22/04/2017||Chesterfield v Charlton||1.50||1.95||1.43||33.47|
|22/04/2017||Milton Keynes Dons v Sheffield Utd||1.50||1.91||1.37||34.84|
|22/04/2017||Houston Dynamo v San Jose Earthquakes||1.50||2.00||-1.50||33.34|
|23/04/2017||New England Revolution v DC United||1.50||1.83||1.25||34.58|
|23/04/2017||Real Salt Lake v Atlanta United||1.50||1.75||1.13||35.71|
|28/04/2017||Ross County v Inverness||1.50||1.76||1.14||36.85|
|29/04/2017||Rangers v Celtic||1.50||1.76||1.14||37.99|
|29/04/2017||Motherwell v Dundee||1.50||1.86||1.29||39.28|
|29/04/2017||Montreal Impact v Vancouver Whitecaps||1.50||1.80||1.20||40.48|
|30/04/2017||Sporting Kansas City v Real Salt Lake||1.50||1.97||1.46||41.93|
|30/04/2017||Northampton v Gillingham||1.50||1.67||-1.50||40.43|
|30/04/2017||Oxford Utd v Shrewsbury||1.50||1.88||-1.50||38.93|
|06/05/2017||Colorado Rapids v Vancouver Whitecaps||1.50||2.10||-1.50||37.43|
|07/05/2017||Columbus Crew v New England Revolution||1.50||1.66||-1.50||35.93|
|07/05/2017||Houston Dynamo v Orlando City||1.50||1.76||1.14||37.07|
|07/05/2017||Hearts v Aberdeen||1.50||1.85||1.28||38.35|
We are going to continue following the tips for another month as we should be nearing 100 bets by then and will be in a better position to give a fair rating.
The service covers America MLS and Finland Ykkonen over the summer, so there shouldn't be a shortage of tips.
Soccer Tip Review: Update Two
11th April 2017
We're back with another update for our Soccer Tip review and unfortunately the service has yet to deliver a profitable month since we started our trial.
This month we made a further loss of 5.99 points at an ROI of -13.3%, due to a poor strike rate of 46.7%. The odds have ranged from 1.67 to 2.69 so far and have averaged at 1.91. Although we have seen an improvement in the strike rate compared to last month, it would still not be high enough to make a long-term profit.
Key Stats - Update Two
|Advised Odds||Available Odds|
|Number of Bets||30||30|
|Total Stakes (pts)||45.00||45.00|
|Profit/Loss (£10 stakes)||-£50.70||-£59.90|
|Total Bank Growth||-29.2%||-31.6%|
|Bank (50pt starting)||35.38||34.21|
Results - Update Two
|11/03/2017||AFC Wimbledon v Northampton||1.50||1.97||-1.50||38.69|
|11/03/2017||Peterborough v Oxford Utd||1.50||1.87||1.31||40.00|
|11/03/2017||St Johnstone v Dundee FC||1.50||2.05||-1.50||38.50|
|11/03/2017||Chicago Fire v Real Salt Lake||1.50||1.75||-1.50||37.00|
|12/03/2017||New York City v DC United Lake||1.50||1.80||1.20||38.20|
|13/03/2017||Gillingham v Bolton||1.50||2.10||1.65||39.85|
|18/03/2017||Bolton v Northampton||1.50||2.10||1.65||41.50|
|18/03/2017||Bradford v Swindon||1.50||1.91||1.37||42.86|
|18/03/2017||Fleetwood Town v AFC Wimbledon||1.50||2.38||-1.50||41.36|
|18/03/2017||Rochdale v Gillingham||1.50||1.73||1.10||42.46|
|18/03/2017||Vancouver Whitecaps v Toronto FC||1.50||2.00||-1.50||40.96|
|25/03/2017||Gillingham v Peterborough||1.50||1.72||-1.50||39.46|
|25/03/2017||Northampton v Oxford Utd||1.50||1.81||-1.50||37.96|
|25/03/2017||Shrewsbury v Bolton||1.50||2.15||-1.50||36.46|
|01/04/2017||Seattle Sounders v Atlanta United||1.50||1.70||-1.50||34.96|
|01/04/2017||Fleetwood Town v Swindon||1.50||2.05||-1.50||33.46|
|01/04/2017||Milton Keynes Dons v Gillingham||1.50||1.80||1.20||34.66|
|01/04/2017||Peterborough v Charlton||1.50||1.86||-1.50||33.16|
|01/04/2017||Rochdale v Northampton||1.50||1.67||-1.50||31.66|
|01/04/2017||New York City v San Jose Earthquakes||1.50||1.76||1.14||32.80|
|01/04/2017||Chicago Fire v Montreal Impact||1.50||1.85||1.28||34.07|
|02/04/2017||Houston Dynamo v New York Red Bulls||1.50||1.78||1.17||35.24|
|04/04/2017||Rochdale v Port Vale||1.50||1.70||1.05||36.29|
|04/04/2017||Southend v Bolton||1.50||2.20||-1.50||34.79|
|04/04/2017||Ross County v Dundee||1.50||1.86||1.29||36.08|
|08/04/2017||Northampton v Sheffield||1.50||1.75||1.13||37.21|
|08/04/2017||Shrewsbury v Rochdale||1.50||1.95||-1.50||35.71|
|08/04/2017||Inverness v St Johnstone||1.50||2.00||1.50||37.21|
|08/04/2017||Chicago Fire v Columbus Crew & New England Revolution v Houston Dynamo||1.50||2.69||-1.50||35.71|
|08/04/2017||San Jose Earthquakes v Seattle Sounders||1.50||1.80||-1.50||34.21|
We'll report back next month with our third update.
Soccer Tip Review: Update One
8th March 2017
It hasn't been a good start to our review of Soccer Tip, the Over/Under Goals tipster, with a loss of 9.81 points with an ROI of -29.7% in the first month. This represents a 19.6% decrease to our starting bank of 50 points.
Only 8 of the 22 advised bets returned a profit, which is a strike rate of 36.4%. At the average odds of 1.88, we would need to see a strike rate of at least 53-54% to make a profit.
Key Stats - Update One
|Advised Odds||Available Odds|
|Number of Bets||22||22|
|Total Stakes (pts)||33.00||33.00|
|Profit/Loss (£10 stakes)||-£95.60||-£98.10|
|Bank (50pt starting)||40.45||40.19|
Results - Update One
|11/02/2017||AFC Wimbledon v Charlton||1.50||2.10||-1.50||48.50|
|11/02/2017||Bristol Rovers v Bradford||1.50||2.00||-1.50||47.00|
|11/02/2017||Bury v Swindon||1.50||1.80||-1.50||45.50|
|11/02/2017||Northampton v Chesterfield||1.50||1.75||1.13||46.63|
|11/02/2017||Peterborough v Sheffield||1.50||1.70||-1.50||45.13|
|14/02/2017||AFC Wimbledon v Coventry||1.50||2.05||-1.50||43.63|
|14/02/2017||Bristol Rovers v Sheffield||1.50||1.80||-1.50||42.13|
|14/02/2017||Bury v Milton Keynes Dons||1.50||1.85||-1.50||40.63|
|14/02/2017||Northampton v Swindon||1.50||2.00||1.50||42.13|
|14/02/2017||Bolton v Rochdale||1.50||2.20||-1.50||40.63|
|18/02/2017||Sheffield Utd v Scunthorpe||1.50||1.80||-1.50||39.13|
|18/02/2017||Southend v Northampton||1.50||1.95||1.43||40.55|
|18/02/2017||Hearts v Inverness||1.50||1.73||-1.50||39.05|
|24/02/2017||Inverness v Rangers||1.50||1.98||1.47||40.52|
|25/02/2017||Aberdeen v Ross County||1.50||1.67||-1.50||39.02|
|25/02/2017||Motherwell v Dundee FC||1.50||1.88||1.32||40.34|
|04/03/2017||Bury v Gillingham||1.50||1.85||1.28||41.62|
|04/03/2017||Northampton v Charlton||1.50||2.10||1.65||43.27|
|04/03/2017||Rochdale v Sheff Utd||1.50||1.95||1.43||44.69|
|04/03/2017||Southend v Port Vale||1.50||1.82||-1.50||43.19|
|04/03/2017||Orlando City v New York City||1.50||1.73||-1.50||41.69|
|05/03/2017||Vancouver Whitecaps v Philadelphia Union||1.50||1.71||-1.50||40.19|
Let's hope for some better results in our next update in a month's time.
Soccer Tip Review: Introduction
8th February 2017
Today we are starting a review of Soccer Tip, a football betting service run by Maths Graduate, Louise, that is based on value betting on the goals markets.
Louise has been quite honest on the sales page, stating in a word that she doesn’t know a great deal about the ins and outs of football, but what she does have is great skill in mathematical analysis and a long-term edge.
The service has been running since 2011 and focuses exclusively on the Over 2.5 Goals market. To date there has been a profit of 183.99 points with an ROI of 14.9% at the advised stakes. Level stakes has produced a profit of 131.27 points with an ROI of 15.9%.
|Number of Bets||824|
|Average Odds (decimal )||1.93|
|Profit to £100 per point||£18,399|
|POT % ( advised stakes )||14.90%|
The full results spreadsheet can be downloaded from the website.
Louise first became interested in betting in 2009 with a few fun bets, before discovering a discrepancy in the way bookmakers calculate their odds and has exploiting them ever since. The system she uses has been refined through the years and she no longer includes Under 2.5 Goals bets.
Currently the service provides bets for four leagues – England League One, Scotland Premier League, America MLS and Finland Ykkonen. This means the service runs 12 months a year.
The historical results graph certainly shows the kind of steady growth that a lot of us would hope for from a football betting service.
Bank Size & Staking Advice
We have not been advised on a bank size, but instead we have been asked to take a look at the biggest drawdown experienced by the service so far and to choose a bank size accordingly, which is a sensible way of making a decision.
So, from what we can see on the spreadsheet, the max drawdown has been approximately 15 points at level stakes and 22 points at advised stakes. For the review, we will use a bank of at least double the size of this to cover any future bad runs (and reviewer's curse!), so we have decided on a 50 point bank to be on the safe side.
The majority of the bets are advised at 1.5 points each, which seems odd as there have only been a handful that have differed from this.
The first 14 days costs just £1 and then £35 per month via PayPal. There is a no quibble guarantee available for the first 10 days of any month's subscription.
It'll be interesting to see whether the service can continue to deliver a profit in such a competitive market.
We will be following the service over at least the next three months and will report back with a monthly update of our results.