Value Backing Naps Review: Month Three Update

Value Backing Naps Review

Carl Nicholson is one of our favourite horse racing tipsters, earning pass ratings for several of his services in the past.

His ITV Racing Tips service produced some fantastic results in our three month review, with a profit of 51.55 points at an ROI of 29.8%. 

In his former "Value Backing" service he mainly tipped big priced value selections, but he has recently decided to refine his selection process. He is now taking a different approach to reflect the horse race punting landscape, with shorter priced selections and a higher strike rate.

Introducing Value Backing Naps, a service offering a daily "Nap" bet and a "Next Best" selection. 

In the first five months of this new format, he has reported a profit of 54.18 points and 50.28 points at Betfair SP with a 45% strike rate.

The staking is either 2 points win or 1 point each-way for the main selection and 1.5 points win or 0.75 points each-way for the next strongest.

Tips are sent out around 10am each morning so there's plenty of time to get bets on. 

We will be following the service over the next few months and will report back each month with an update of our results.


Update One Results

After one month of betting, our Value Backing Naps review almost broke even with a small loss of 0.83 points, which worked out as 1.7% of our starting bank.

There were a few near misses with each-way bets just missing out on the win. Unfortunately, as the odds were below 5/1 on the bets that placed we still made a small loss from them. However, it did help to keep losses down.

The each-way bets seemed to simmer out towards the end of the month, with the final week of tips all being straight win bets. This improved results dramatically with a 16.95 point profit in one week.

Key Stats

 Advised OddsAvailable Odds
Number of Bets6767
Total Stakes (pts)70.570.5
Profit/Loss (pts)-0.83-0.83
Profit/Loss (£10 stakes)-£8.30-£8.30
Strike Rate25.4%25.4%
ROI-1.2%-1.2%
Overall Bank Growth-1.7%-1.7%
Bank (50pt starting)49.1749.17

Results

DateRaceSelectionTotal StakeEW?Available OddsP/LBank
01/04/2020Tampa Bay Downs 9.00Bitcoin Passion1.00Yes5.00-1.0049.00
01/04/2020Will Rodgers Downs 7.15Ranger Bob1.00Yes3.50-1.0048.00
02/04/2020Gulf Stream Park 20.03Suz1.00Yes3.25-0.2847.72
03/04/2020Tampa Bay Downs 17.24Brandt1.00Yes8.004.2051.92
03/04/2020Tampa Bay Downs 17.53Free Dancer1.00Yes4.50-0.1551.77
03/04/2020Tampa Bay Downs 20.24Ria Munk1.00Yes5.00-1.0050.77
04/04/2020Tampa Bay Downs 19.00Double That1.00Yes7.50-1.0049.77
04/04/2020Gulfstream 19.15Nothing For Free1.00Yes6.00-1.0048.77
04/04/2020Gulfstream 23.24Trilby1.00Yes5.00-0.1048.67
05/04/2020Gulfstream 21.41Shamrocket1.00Yes5.50-0.0548.62
05/04/2020Tampa Bay Downs 17.25Lord Byron1.00Yes4.50-0.1548.47
05/04/2020Tampa Bay Downs 18.19She's Got Moves1.00Yes5.00-1.0047.47
06/04/2020Fonner Park 22.27Dreaming Type1.00Yes4.50-1.0046.47
06/04/2020Fonner Park 00.42Trask1.00Yes5.00-0.1046.37
06/04/2020Fonner Park 01.36Choir Director1.00Yes6.50-1.0045.37
07/04/2020Fonner Park 01.09Forze Mau1.00Yes6.00-1.0044.37
07/04/2020Will Rodgers Downs 20.45What Thinking1.00Yes4.50-1.0043.37
08/04/2020Tampa Bay Downs 17.30The Kahn1.00Yes5.00-0.1043.27
08/04/2020Tampa Bay Downs 19.00Shenu Shenume1.00Yes4.50-1.0042.27
08/04/2020Tampa Bay Downs 20.30Ima Wildcat1.00Yes7.50-1.0041.27
09/04/2020Gulfstream 9.36Volubile1.00No3.502.5043.77
10/04/2020Tampa Bay Downs 19.53Bats Chance1.00No4.33-1.0042.77
11/04/2020Gulfstream 22.54Pacific Gale1.00Yes5.00-1.0041.77
12/04/2020Gulfstream Park 10.32Blazing Desire1.00No2.501.5043.27
13/04/2020Fonner Park 22.27Ta Kela Warning1.00Yes5.00-0.1043.17
13/04/2020Fonner Park 01.09Honey Hearts1.00Yes4.33-1.0042.17
14/04/2020Will Rodgers Downs 20.15Dak Da Man1.00No3.25-1.0041.17
14/04/2020Will Rodgers Downs 21.15Cairo King1.00No3.00-1.0040.17
15/04/2020Tampa Bay Downs 20.00I'm That Bird1.00Yes6.500.0540.22
16/04/2020Gulfstream 19.39Grey Manners1.00Yes4.33-1.0039.22
17/04/2020Tampa Bay Downs 18.21La Belle De Course1.00Yes8.00-1.0038.22
18/04/2020Gulfstream 9.21Vincero1.00Yes9.00-1.0037.22
19/04/2020Gulfstream 18.24Nowitna River1.00Yes6.50-1.0036.22
19/04/2020Gulfstream 20.53Denver1.00Yes15.00-1.0035.22
20/04/2020Will Rogers Downs 21.45Spendaholic1.00No4.50-1.0034.22
20/04/2020Will Rogers Downs 23.15She's All Wolfe1.00No3.002.0036.22
21/04/2020Will Rogers Downs 20.15Texas Long Bow1.00No3.75-1.0035.22
21/04/2020Will Rogers Downs 20.45Indian Gem1.00No4.50-1.0034.22
21/04/2020Will Rogers Downs 21.15Southgate1.00No2.75-1.0033.22
21/04/2020Will Rodgers Downs 23.15Quality Rocket1.00No5.00-1.0032.22
22/04/2020Fonner Park 22.54Gaby Vee1.00No3.50-1.0031.22
22/04/2020Fonner Park 23.21Langs Legend1.00No3.00-1.0030.22
22/04/2020Will Rogers Downs 19.15Kottoncandy Kisses1.00No4.33-1.0029.22
23/04/2020Gulfstream 21.15Dr Edgar1.00No4.50-1.0028.22
23/04/2020Gulfstream 22.47Retro Street1.00No6.00-1.0027.22
24/04/2020Tampa Bay Downs Race 5Lady Breanna1.00No4.503.5030.72
24/04/2020Tampa Bay Downs Race 8Bueno Bueno Bueno2.00No2.503.0033.72
24/04/2020Gulfstream Race 6Lady Fiorella1.00No3.25-1.0032.72
24/04/2020Los Alamitos Race 2Sharon's Fury1.50No2.502.2534.97
24/04/2020Los Alamitos Race 4Scouted1.00No4.00-1.0033.97
25/04/2020Gulfstream Race 4The Mighty Judge1.00No3.752.7536.72
25/04/2020Gulfstream Race 6Smack1.00No5.50-1.0035.72
25/04/2020Gulfstream Race 10Vegas Kitten1.00No4.33-1.0034.72
25/04/2020Tampa Bay Downs Race 5Professional1.00No5.004.0038.72
26/04/2020Tampa Bay Downs Race 8Tiz Samurai1.00No4.33-1.0037.72
26/04/2020Gulfstream Race 1Oak Bluffs1.00No3.75-1.0036.72
26/04/2020Gulfstream Race 4R Kiss Em Goodbye1.00No3.502.5039.22
27/04/2020Will Rodgers Downs Race 6Rocky Boy Indian1.00No3.502.5041.72
27/04/2020Will Rodgers Downs Race 7Ten Count Out1.00No4.503.5045.22
27/04/2020Will Rodgers Downs Race 8Blue Moonrise2.00No2.102.2047.42
27/04/2020Will Rodgers Downs Race 9Three Cords1.50No2.75-1.5045.92
28/04/2020Will Rogers Downs Race 4Covington Quality1.00No3.752.7548.67
28/04/2020Will Rogers Downs Race 10Way Too Cute1.00No3.00-1.0047.67
29/04/2020Will Rogers Downs Race 6Golden Lullabye1.00No3.002.0049.67
29/04/2020Will Rogers Downs Race 8Spendaholic1.00No2.50-1.0048.67
30/04/2020Gulfstream Race 3Monmouth Dr1.50No2.001.5050.17
30/04/2020Gulfstream Race 5Bimini1.00No2.75-1.0049.17

Update Two Results

Month two of our Value Backing Naps review ended with a loss of 6.01 points at the available odds. Things weren't quite going to plan and our bank had decreased by 13.7% in two months.

We hoped that the return of UK and Irish racing would see the service get back on track.

Key Stats

 Advised OddsAvailable Odds
Number of Bets7272
Total Stakes (pts)81.081.0
Profit/Loss (pts)-6.21-6.01
Profit/Loss (£10 stakes)-£62.10-£60.10
Strike Rate26.4%26.4%
ROI-7.7%-7.4%
Overall Bank Growth-14.1%-13.7%
Bank (50pt starting)42.9743.17

Results

DateRaceSelectionTotal StakeEW?Available OddsP/LBank
01/05/2020Gulfstream Race 9Snap Hook1.00No2.75-1.0048.17
02/05/2020Gulfstream Race 7Lookin At Roses1.00No5.00-1.0047.17
02/05/2020Gulfstream Race 12Britesideoftheroad1.00No5.00-1.0046.17
02/05/2020Los Alamitos Race 4Appreciated1.00No3.25-1.0045.17
02/05/2020Tampa Bay Downs Race 7D'craziness1.00No6.00-1.0044.17
02/05/2020Tampa Bay Down Race 8Lucky Runs North1.50No3.50-1.5042.67
03/05/2020Gulfstream Race 5Wild One Forever1.00No5.50-1.0041.67
03/05/2020Gulfstream Race 10Outshine1.00No5.004.0045.67
03/05/2020Tampa Bay Downs Race 5Projected1.50No2.632.4548.12
04/05/2020Will Rogers Downs Race 9Potomic1.00No3.00-1.0047.12
05/05/2020Will Rogers Downs Race 3Speaker Van1.00No3.252.2549.37
06/05/2020Tampa Bay Downs Race 1Dig In1.00No3.50-1.0048.37
07/05/2020Gulfstream Race 3Take Charge Again1.00No3.002.0050.37
08/05/2020Gulfstream Race 9Frank First1.00No4.50-1.0049.37
09/05/2020Tampa Bay Downs Race 5Sunset Empire1.00No3.50-1.0048.37
09/05/2020Tampa Bay Downs Race 6Colonels Daughter1.00No3.75-1.0047.37
10/05/2020Gulfstream Race 5La Tres Jolie1.00No4.503.5050.87
11/05/2020Will Rodgers Downs Race 10Buck Duane1.00No3.75-1.0049.87
11/05/2020Fonner Park Race 6Three Footer1.00No4.003.0052.87
12/05/2020Will Rogers Downs Race 10Rubber Bandman1.00No4.50-1.0051.87
13/05/2020Fonner Park Race 7You're The Reason1.00No6.00-1.0050.87
13/05/2020Fonner Park Race 8Kurious Kennedy1.50No4.505.2556.12
13/05/2020Tampa Bay Downs Race 1Happy Wanderer1.00No3.002.0058.12
14/05/2020Golden Gate Fields Race 7Moonshine Annie1.00No3.50-1.0057.12
14/05/2020Golden Gate Fields Race 9Eldritch1.00No4.50-1.0056.12
14/05/2020Gulfstream Race 5Stone Hands1.50No4.00-1.5054.62
15/05/2020Santa Anita Race 2Miss Ryleigh1.00No4.00-1.0053.62
15/05/2020Santa Anita Race 7Civil Suit1.00No2.881.8855.50
15/05/2020Tampa Bay Downs Race 4Lord Byron1.00No4.50-1.0054.50
15/05/2020Gulfstream Race 4Sagamore Mischief1.00No3.25-1.0053.50
16/05/2020Golden Gate Fields Race 1Mr Magico1.00No3.25-1.0052.50
16/05/2020Golden Gate Fields Race 7Into The South1.00No4.00-1.0051.50
16/05/2020Santa Anita Race 1Street Image1.00No6.00-1.0050.50
16/05/2020Tampa Bay Downs Race 1Born To Grove1.00No2.63-1.0049.50
17/05/2020Golden Gate Fields Race 7Mommy Rose1.00No3.00-1.0048.50
17/05/2020Golden Gate Fields Race 9Oiseau De Guerre1.00No4.00-1.0047.50
19/05/2020Fonner Park Race 4Golden Bullet1.00No2.88-1.0046.50
19/05/2020Fonner Park Race 8Rulethenight1.00No4.50-1.0045.50
19/05/2020Will Rogers Downs Race 4R V T Thunder Road1.00No3.752.7548.25
19/05/2020Will Rogers Downs Race Race 7Spirit Of Caledon1.50No2.382.0750.32
20/05/2020Tampa Bay Downs Race 9Janganda1.00No2.751.7552.07
20/05/2020Will Rogers Downs Race 2Nacogdoches1.00No4.33-1.0051.07
20/05/2020Will Rogers Race 3Moro Boss1.00No3.25-1.0050.07
20/05/2020Will Rogers Downs Race 10Fayette Warrior1.50No2.20-1.5048.57
21/05/2020Golden Gate Fields Race 5Muskora1.00No3.75-1.0047.57
22/05/2020Remington Park Race 3Cjs Rockhard N Ready1.00No4.503.5051.07
22/05/2020Santa Anita Race 2Hot On The Trail1.00No4.50-1.0050.07
22/05/2020Santa Anita Race 7Music To My Ears1.00No3.25-1.0049.07
22/05/2020Tampa Race 2Mast Cove1.00No4.00-1.0048.07
22/05/2020Tampa Race 3Melissani1.00No4.50-1.0047.07
23/05/2020Golden Gate Fields Race 4Lifeline1.00No3.002.0049.07
23/05/2020Golden Gate Fields Race 6Stars In The Skys1.00No2.88-1.0048.07
23/05/2020Gulfstream Race 2Wilshire Diamond1.00No4.00-1.0047.07
23/05/2020Santa Anita Race 7Lovely Lilia1.00No4.00-1.0046.07
23/05/2020Tampa Bay Downs Race 1W W Archie1.00No2.75-1.0045.07
24/05/2020Lone Star Race 3Texas Music Box1.00No4.003.0048.07
24/05/2020Lone Star Race 4Something Super1.00No3.25-1.0047.07
24/05/2020Santa Anita Race 3Foreign Protocol1.00No3.25-1.0046.07
25/05/2020Golden Gate Race 2Continental Union1.50No2.10-1.5044.57
25/05/2020Golden Gate Race 6Thanks1.00No3.25-1.0043.57
25/05/2020Gulfstream Race 7Ms Meshak2.00No2.202.4045.97
27/05/2020Tampa Bay Downs Race 2Sunset Empire2.00No2.88-2.0043.97
28/05/2020Gulfstream Park Race 8Midtown Rose2.00No2.50-2.0041.97
29/05/2020Tampa Bay Downs Race 7Proposition1.00No3.00-1.0040.97
29/05/2020Santa Anita Race 7Lighthouse1.00No4.003.0043.97
29/05/2020Golden Gate Fields Race 7Violent Speed1.00No5.00-1.0042.97
29/05/2020Golden Gate Fields Race 8Brilliant Bird1.00No4.503.5046.47
30/05/2020Golden Gate Fields Race 8Coco Bee1.00No10.00-1.0045.47
30/05/2020Gulfstream Race 2Fulmini1.00No3.50-1.0044.47
30/05/2020Tampa Bay Downs Race 2I'm A G Six2.00No2.102.2046.67
30/05/2020Santa Anita Race 7Stela Star1.50No3.00-1.5045.17
31/05/2020Santa Anita Race 1Fay Dan2.00No3.00-2.0043.17

Update Three Results

With UK and Irish racing back up and running, the Value Backing Naps service had reverted back to their expertise and were no longer sending out tips for US racing. 

We weren't quite sure what to expect with results after the break to racing, but the service managed to break even. At the odds that we could find, we made a small profit of 1.25 points.

Key Stats

 Advised OddsAvailable Odds
Number of Bets7474
Total Stakes (pts)81.581.5
Profit/Loss (pts)0.001.25
Profit/Loss (£10 stakes)£0.00£12.50
Strike Rate21.6%21.6%
ROI0.0%1.5%
Overall Bank Growth-14.1%-11.2%
Bank (50pt starting)42.9644.42

Results

DateRaceSelectionTotal StakeEW?Available OddsP/LBank
01/06/2020Newcastle 3.55Oakenshield1.00No7.006.0049.17
01/06/2020Newcastle 5.40Thibaan1.00No3.50-1.0048.17
01/06/2020Newcastle 6.15Wise Glory1.00No4.00-1.0047.17
02/06/2020Newcastle 1.20Fifth Position1.00No3.75-1.0046.17
02/06/2020Newcastle 2.30Mubakker1.00No3.502.5048.67
02/06/2020Kempton 2.10Mercenary Rose1.00No7.00-1.0047.67
03/06/2020Yarmouth 12.45Celestran1.00No3.752.7550.42
03/06/2020Yarmouth 4.15Maydanny1.00No5.004.0054.42
03/06/2020Yarmouth 5.25Ikebana1.00No6.50-1.0053.42
04/06/2020Newcastle 1.00Shoot To Win1.00No6.00-1.0052.42
04/06/2020Newcastle 3.20My Kinda Day1.00No7.00-1.0051.42
04/06/2020Newcastle 6.15Sea Of Marmoon1.00No4.003.0054.42
04/06/2020Newmarket 5.20Magic J1.00No3.25-1.0053.42
05/06/2020Lingfield 5.35Jovial2.00No2.002.0055.42
05/06/2020Newmarket 4.10Edinburgh Castle1.00No3.50-1.0054.42
06/06/2020Newcastle 4.30Precocity1.00No3.50-1.0053.42
06/06/2020Lingfield 4.55Equipped1.00No4.00-1.0052.42
06/06/2020Lingfield 6.40Motamayiz1.50No2.75-1.0051.42
06/06/2020Lingfield 8.25Isayalittleprayer1.00No4.33-1.0050.42
07/06/2020Haydock 1.30Oleksander1.00No6.00-1.0049.42
07/06/2020Haydock 6.10Maori Knight1.00No3.50-1.0048.42
07/06/2020Newmarket 5.55Al Maysan1.00No5.00-1.0047.42
07/06/2020Lingfield 5.45Pretty Lady1.50No3.00-1.5045.92
08/06/2020Haydock 2.45Queen Gamrah1.00No5.50-1.0044.92
08/06/2020Haydock 3.15Arch Moon1.00No4.003.0047.92
08/06/2020Haydock 4.25Aquileo1.00No5.00-1.0046.92
08/06/2020Haydock 4.55Selecto1.00No10.00-1.0045.92
09/06/2020Haydock 2.15Glen Force1.00No7.00-1.0044.92
09/06/2020Wolverhampton 6.30Deposit1.00No7.00-1.0043.92
10/06/2020Yarmouth 7.45Capla Berry1.00No4.503.5047.42
10/06/2020Pontefract 4.20Shauyra1.00No3.75-1.0046.42
10/06/2020Wolverhampton 2.10Rocking Reg1.00No7.00-1.0045.42
10/06/2020Kempton 9.00Anno Lucis1.00No6.50-1.0044.42
11/06/2020Lingfield 5.40Intrepid Italian1.00No4.003.0047.42
11/06/2020Yarmouth 5.30You Owe Me1.50No3.00-1.5045.92
12/06/2020Wolverhampton 3.00Alianne1.00No5.50-1.0044.92
13/06/2020Doncaster 12.30Gossip1.50No3.50-1.5043.42
13/06/2020Doncaster 4.30Favourite Moon2.00No2.25-2.0041.42
14/06/2020Doncaster 4.15Woodhouse2.00No2.10-2.0039.42
15/06/2020Kempton 4.30Almareekh1.00No4.50-1.0038.42
16/06/2020Thirsk 1.30Kilig1.00No4.50-1.0037.42
16/06/2020Thirsk 2.40Dreamseller1.50No4.505.2542.67
16/06/2020Thirsk 4.50Almurr1.00No4.50-1.0041.67
17/06/2020Beverley 1.25Burtonwood1.00No8.007.0048.67
18/06/2020Redcar 8.30Raashdy1.00No6.00-1.0047.67
20/06/2020Ripon 6.10Paddy Power1.00No6.50-1.0046.67
20/06/2020Ripon 6.40Bossipop1.00No6.005.0051.67
20/06/2020Ripon 8.10Gulf Of Poets1.00No10.00-1.0050.67
21/06/2020Wolverhampton 2.05One One Seven1.00No4.33-1.0049.67
21/06/2020Wolverhampton 2.35Robben Rainbow1.00Yes23.00-1.0048.67
21/06/2020Redcar 3.15Arbalet1.50No3.75-1.5047.17
21/06/2020Redcar 3.45Kermouster1.00No9.50-1.0046.17
22/06/2020Thirsk 1.50Sir Havelock1.50No4.33-1.5044.67
22/06/2020Ayr 5.20Club Wexford1.00No5.00-1.0043.67
22/06/2020Windsor 6.30Iconic Knight1.00No8.00-1.0042.67
23/06/2020Beverley 2.15Le Chiffre1.00No7.506.5049.17
23/06/2020Beverley 4.15Ideal Candy1.00No6.00-1.0048.17
23/06/2020Chepstow 6.10Gambon1.00No8.50-1.0047.17
23/06/2020Kempton 5.55Big Lachie1.00No5.00-1.0046.17
24/06/2020Hamilton 3.20Midnite Bride1.00No9.00-1.0045.17
24/06/2020Haydock 1.40She Can Boogie1.00No8.00-1.0044.17
24/06/2020Haydock 3.40High Flying Bird1.00No11.00-1.0043.17
24/06/2020Haydock 5.50Pot Of Paint1.00No9.00-1.0042.17
25/06/2020Leicester 6.55Aegeus1.00No6.00-1.0041.17
25/06/2020Haydock 12.45Ned Pepper1.00No7.50-1.0040.17
25/06/2020Haydock 3.45San Sebastian1.00No10.00-1.0039.17
26/06/2020Doncaster 1.50Jaaneh2.00No4.50-2.0037.17
27/06/2020Redcar 2.50Hesslewood1.00No5.50-1.0036.17
27/06/2020Newcastle 4.10Contrebasse1.00No8.50-1.0035.17
28/06/2020Newmarket 5.00Charlie D1.00No4.503.5038.67
29/06/2020Yarmouth 2.30Blackheath1.00No3.752.7541.42
29/06/2020Windsor 3.20Poets Dance1.00No4.00-1.0040.42
29/06/2020Windsor 5.20Severance1.00No6.00-1.0039.42
30/06/2020Doncaster 2.00Wentworth Falls1.00No6.005.0044.42

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